Crypto Options Expiry: $16B on the Line
The Options Expiry: A Calm Before the Storm?
Okay, let's break down this upcoming crypto options expiry. On October 31, 2025, we're looking at over $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring on Deribit. Bitcoin's facing a $13 billion expiry, with the "maximum pain point" – the price at which the most option holders will be financially hurt – sitting at $100,000. Ethereum's expiry is a smaller, but still significant, $1.7 billion, with its maximum pain point at $3,400.
Currently, Bitcoin's trading around $91,389 (as of late November 2025), and Ethereum is at $3,014. The put-to-call ratio (puts are bets that the price will go down, calls are bets it will go up) for Bitcoin is 0.54, with almost twice as many calls open as puts. Ethereum's ratio is similar at 0.48. What does this tell us? Sentiment is leaning bullish, but not overwhelmingly so.
Bitcoin's funding rate for perpetual futures recently dipped into negative territory. This suggests that short sellers are paying long holders, a sign that some traders are betting against Bitcoin in the short term. We also saw Bitcoin briefly pop above $88,000 recently, after hitting a seven-month low of around $80,554. Volatility is definitely in the air. The question is whether Trump's policies will cause the volatility to increase.
Trump's Crypto Promises: Faith vs. Facts?
Trump's Shadow Over Crypto
Now, let's bring in the Trump factor. A recent survey suggests that 60% of American adults familiar with crypto believe its value will increase during Trump's second term. And 46% think Trump will boost mainstream adoption. That's a lot of faith placed in a politician who, let's be honest, has been somewhat unpredictable in the past.
What's driving this optimism? Trump has vowed to establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve and prevent the government from selling seized Bitcoin. He's also appointed David Sacks as his AI and crypto "czar." These are undeniably pro-crypto signals. But, and this is a big but, can we really trust that these policies will materialize as promised? Politicians make promises all the time, especially around election years.
Here's where I get skeptical. While there's a lot of bullish sentiment around Trump and crypto, a significant chunk of people are still wary. Almost 60% of those familiar with crypto aren't confident in its security, and even 40% of crypto owners share that concern. Plus, nearly one in five crypto owners have had trouble accessing or withdrawing their funds. These are fundamental issues that need to be addressed, and no amount of political rhetoric can fix them overnight.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling: the disconnect between stated confidence and actual experience. How can so many people believe Trump will boost adoption while simultaneously lacking faith in the technology's security? It suggests a lot of people are buying into the hype without fully understanding the risks.
Fleet Asset Management Group (FLAMGP) is touting its "institutional-grade risk-management framework," which is exactly what you'd expect them to say. However, their approach is not likely to have any effect on the price of Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Crypto's Growth Spurt: Sustainable or Speculative Bubble?
The Bigger Picture: Adoption and Risk
Zooming out, crypto ownership has nearly doubled since the end of 2021, with about 28% of American adults (around 65 million people) now owning some form of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin remain the most popular choices. And despite the security concerns, a lot of people plan to buy more crypto this year. According to the
2025 Cryptocurrency Adoption and Consumer Sentiment Report - Security.org crypto ownership has increased significantly.
We've also seen some major milestones in the past year. The SEC finally approved a Bitcoin ETF in January and an Ether ETF in July. The U.S. District Court SDNY reduced the SEC's Ripple Labs fine, and Grayscale launched an XRP Trust. These are all signs of growing acceptance and maturity in the crypto market. The total crypto market cap reached a historic high of $3.33 trillion in October 2024. Bitcoin also went through its four-year supply halving.
However, the question remains: Is this growth sustainable? Are we building a solid foundation, or are we just riding a wave of speculation? And how will Trump's policies affect this trajectory? Will he truly be a catalyst for mainstream adoption, or will his actions create more uncertainty and volatility?
Trump: Crypto Savior or Unpredictable Variable?
The data paints a mixed picture. There's undeniable growth and increasing acceptance of crypto, but also lingering concerns about security and accessibility. Trump's pro-crypto stance has fueled optimism, but it's crucial to remember that political promises don't always translate into reality. The expiry event might trigger volatility, but the real long-term factor is whether the underlying issues of security and user-friendliness are addressed to support sustained growth.
